Publication Type: Journal articles

India’s energy and emissions future: An interpretive analysis of model scenarios

Introduction

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a low emissions base, India is an important actor in global climate change mitigation. However, perceptions of India vary widely, from an energy-hungry climate deal-breaker to a forerunner of a low carbon future. Developing clarity on India’s energy and emissions future is challenged by the uncertainties of India’s development transitions, including its pathway through a demographic and urban transition within a rapidly changing policy context. Model-based scenario analyses provide widely varying projections, in part because they make differing assumptions, often implicit, about these transitions. To address the uncertainty in India’s energy and emissions future, this letter applies a novel interpretive approach to existing scenario studies. First, we make explicit the implied development, technology and policy assumptions underlying model-based analysis in order to cluster and interpret results. In a second step, we analyse India’s current policy landscape and use that as a benchmark against which to judge scenario assumptions and results. Using this interpretive approach, we conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India’s CO2 energy-related emissions from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound for its 2030 emissions and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India’s Paris emissions intensity pledge. Because of its low emissions starting point, even after a doubling, India’s 2030 per capita emissions will be below today’s global average and absolute emissions will be less than half of China’s 2015 emissions from the same sources. The analysis of recent policy trends further suggests a lower than expected electricity demand and a faster than expected transition from coal to renewable electricity. The letter concludes by making an argument for interpretive approaches as a necessary complement to scenario analysis, particularly in rapidly changing development contexts.

Read more

Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Introduction

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.

Read more

Cascading biases against poorer countries

Introduction

A recent article by Robiou du Pont et al. suggests that wealthier countries (for example, the members of the EU) have made more ‘equitable’ contributions to the Paris goals than poorer countries (such as India and China), with most other developing countries somewhere in between. These results are counter-intuitive, given that developed countries have the majority of the responsibility for the atmospheric build-up of GHGs and the majority of the financial wherewithal to help solve the climate problem, yet their Paris pledges amount to fewer tons of mitigated emissions than developing countries. This correspondence presents a response to du Pont et. al and points out the biases towards wealthier nations in the approach and methodology adopted.

Read more

Multi-criteria decision analysis in policy-making for climate mitigation and development

Introduction

Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy-making has largely been conducted in isolation of development considerations. An emerging literature, bolstered by the “nationally determined” nature of the Paris Agreement, explores the identification and assessment of the co-impacts of mitigation actions. There is now a recognized need to consider mitigation an integral part of a multi-objective development challenge. However, the literature on how to practically and effectively apply this in policy-making, particularly in developing economies, is limited. This paper explores the potential for using approaches that fall under the umbrella of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in guiding analyses and policy-making that relate to the climate mitigation–development interface. It categorizes three distinct types of decision problems in the broad area of climate and development policy-making, and presents lessons from three case studies, in India, Chile, and Peru and Colombia taken together, where aspects of MCDA approaches were explored. Based on these reviews, the paper concludes that MCDA approaches, despite certain limitations, can add substantive and procedural credibility to existing toolkits supporting climate and development decision-making. Key contributions of the approach are to structure the analyses, systematically include stakeholder deliberations, and provide tools to rigorously incorporate quantitative and qualitative co-impacts in multiple objective-based decisions.

Read more

Tackling the health burden of air pollution in South Asia

Summary

Air pollution exposure is the second most important risk factor for ill health in South Asia, contributing to between 13% and 21.7% of all deaths and approximately 58 million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) through chronic and acute respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses.1 Of the top 30 cities in the world with the poorest air quality in 2016, 17 are in South Asia.2 The impact of air pollution transcends boundaries. The “brown cloud”—caused by pollution from carbon aerosols—is a phenomenon captured in satellite images of atmospheric haze over South Asia, as well as China. South Asia has one of the highest concentrations of black carbon emissions from cars and trucks, cooking stoves, and industrial facilities. In addition to their effect on health, black carbon particles are a short lived climate pollutant with a possible impact on precipitation patterns and on the Himalayan glacier system, which threatens water resources in the region.3

Collective regional action to monitor air quality and implement evidence based policies and interventions is needed. While countries have introduced promising initiatives in recent years, comprehensive health centred strategies are lacking. We present the status of air pollution and health effects in South Asia, and propose urgent, concerted action across sectors to achieve recommended air quality standards for the people of the region.

Read more

Trump’s Toxic Announcement on Climate Change

Introduction

President Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will exit from the Paris Agreement betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the agreement works. It also goes against long-agreed climate principles, and is blind to emergent clean energy trends. In practical terms, the US had activated a rollback of mitigation policies and contributions to climate finance prior to this announcement. Until there are changes in domestic US climate politics—of which there are positive signs—the US cannot be regarded a reliable partner for global climate cooperation.

Read more

Redefining public health leadership in the sustainable development goal era

Abstract

Adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by member states of the United Nations (UN) has set a new agenda for public health action at national and global levels. The changed context calls for a reframing of what constitutes effective leadership in public health, through a construct that reflects the interdependence of leadership at multiple levels across the health system and its partners in other sectors. This is especially important in the context of Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) that are facing complex demographic and epidemiological transitions. The health system needs to exercise leadership that effectively mobilises all its resources for maximising health impact, and channels trans-disciplinary learning into well-coordinated multi-sectoral action on the wider determinants of health. Leadership is essential not only at the level of inspirational individuals who can create collective vision and commitment but also at the level of supportive institutions situated in or aligned to the health system. In turn, the health system as a whole has to exercise leadership that advances public health in the framework of sustainable development. This commentary examines the desirable attributes of effective leadership at each of these levels and explores the nature of their inter-dependence.

Read more

Evolution of Institutions for Climate Policy in India

Introduction

The growing focus on climate policy in India is not matched by an equivalent level of attention to institutions . Effective institutions are also needed for the design, coordination and implementation of policy. This paper examines the functioning of institutions, organised around three periods: pre-2007; 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to mid-2014. Several key themes emerge: First, the formation of climate institutions has often been ad hoc and is inadequately geared to India’s co-benefits based approach to climate policy. Second, there is a lack of continuity in institutions, once established. Third, coordination across government has been uneven and episodic. Fourth, while various efforts at knowledge generation have been attempted, they do not add up to a mechanism for sustained and consistent strategic thinking on climate change. Fifth, the overall capacity within government remains limited. Sixth, capacity shortfalls are exacerbated by closed structures of governance that only partially draw on external expertise.

Read more